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1 Peninsula Medical School, Exeter, United Kingdom.
2 Department of Statistics, University of Plymouth, United Kingdom.
3 Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Italian National Research Council on Aging, Geriatrics Department, Florence, Italy.
4 Tuscany Regional Health Agency, Florence, Italy.
5 I.O.T. and Department of Medical and Surgical Critical Care, University of Florence, Italy.
6 Longitudinal Studies Section, Clinical Research Branch, Gerontology Research Center, National Institute on Aging, Baltimore, Maryland.
7 Laboratory of Epidemiology, Demography and Biometry, National Institute on Aging, Bethesda, Maryland.
8 Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City.
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Methods. We used 1671 participants aged 6580 years from two studies: the InCHIANTI study and wave 6 of the Iowa-Established Populations for Epidemiological Study of the Elderly (EPESE). We tested three common polymorphisms against IL-18 concentration and measures of functioning.
Results. In the InCHIANTI study, a 1 standard deviation increase in serum IL-18 concentrations was associated with an increased chance of being in the 20% of slowest walkers (odds ratio 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.171.80; p =.0007) and 20% of those with poorest function based on the Short Physical Performance Battery Score (odds ratio 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.221.89; p =.00016) in age sex adjusted logistic regression models. There was no association with Activities of Daily Living (p =.26) or Mini-Mental State Examination score (p =.66). The C allele of the IL-18 polymorphism rs5744256 reduced serum concentrations of IL-18 by 39 pmol/mL per allele (p =.00001). The rs5744256 single nucleotide polymorphism was also associated with shorter walk times in InCHIANTI (n = 662, p =.016) and Iowa-EPESE (n = 995, p =.026). In pooled ranked models rs5744256 was also associated with higher SPPB scores (n = 1671, p =.019). Instead of adjusting for confounders in the IL-18 walk time association, we used rs5744256 in a Mendelian randomization analysis: The association remained in instrumental variable models (p =.021).
Conclusion. IL-18 concentrations are associated with physical function in 65- to 80-year-olds. A polymorphism in the IL-18 gene alters IL-18 concentrations and is associated with an improvement in walk speed. IL-18 may play an active role in age-related functional impairment, but these findings need independent replication.
IL-18 serum concentrations increase with age (12), and are higher in healthy centenarians compared to younger controls (13). However, an association of higher IL-18 serum concentrations with aging phenotypes may not be causal. IL-18 concentrations may be raised as a by-product of disease or other processes producing physical decline. It is also possible that unaccounted for confounding factors may result in misleading associations. Assuming an ethnically homogeneous population, genes are randomly assigned to offspring at conception. Reverse causation or confounding factors are therefore very unlikely to affect polymorphisms. A gene variant that alters a potential risk factor provides a natural experiment analogous to a randomized controlled trial of the risk factor: If a polymorphism changes a risk factor but does not produce a linked and proportionate change in outcomes, then by implication the risk factor is unlikely to play an active role in producing the outcomes. This "Mendelian randomization" approach has recently shown that the association between C-reactive protein and features of the metabolic syndrome is unlikely to be causal (14).
The role of common variation in the IL-18 gene in aging-related disease and disability has not been well studied. In a recent study of four genes in the IL-18 system (IL-18, IL-18 receptor, IL-18 receptor accessory protein, and IL-18 binding protein) using 1288 patients with coronary artery disease (15), one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) was found to alter IL-18 serum levels. This SNP was also predictive of cardiovascular mortality over 6 years, but further studies will be needed to confirm this association.
The timing of onset of physical and cognitive functional limitations is a core marker of biological age (16), and functioning is often a more useful measure of older people's health than are individual diseases, as multiple diseases are common and severity varies widely. Many aspects of physical functioningincluding muscle strength (17), gait speed, and time to complete five chair stands (18)show substantial heritability in older people. Cognitive function is also highly heritable (19,20).
In this study, we tested three related hypotheses: (i) that common variation in the IL-18 gene alters IL-18 serum concentrations, (ii) that increased IL-18 serum concentrations are associated with impaired functioning in old age, and (iii) that IL-18 gene alleles that reduce IL-18 concentrations also improve physical functioning in old age. To do this, we used IL-18 serum concentrations and functioning data from the InCHIANTI study (21). We used a Mendelian randomization (22) approach to test the strength of association between IL-18 concentrations and measures of functioning free from reverse causality and confounding. We used a second study, the Iowa- Established Populations for Epidemiological Study of the Elderly (EPESE) study population, to add further evidence on the role of IL-18 in aging related phenotypes.
| METHODS |
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During the interviews, participants were asked about difficulties performing six Activities of Daily Living (ADL), including bathing, dressing, eating, grooming, toileting, and continence. InCHIANTI participants were classified as having difficulty only if they required help or were unable to perform the task. This requirement identified a relatively small proportion of participants who were very disabled. The Short Physical Performance Battery score (SPPB) (23) was based on the results of balance tests, times to complete two 4-meter walks, and times to stand up from the seated position five times. The SPPB has been validated as a predictive marker for mortality and disability incidence (23). A 7-meter usual pace walk was also used. In addition, we used the Mini-Mental State Examination score (24) to assess cognitive functioning. Details of the InCHIANTI participants are given in Table 1. Fasting IL-18 serum concentrations were measured as described by Ferrucci and colleagues (12).
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ADL items in this study included bathing, grooming, dressing, eating without aid, transferring from bed to chair, and using the toilet. The number of ADL problems was counted as tasks for which the participant reported difficulty irrespective of any need for helpthis was a lower disability threshold than that used in the InCHIANTI study. The three components of the SPPB were tested in a way similar to those in the InCHIANTI study, except that the usual pace walk test distance was short (8 feet) and timings were carried out by stopwatch rather than by electronic sensors. The Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (26) was used to measure cognition. IL-18 concentrations were not available in this study.
Genetic Analyses
We used data from the HapMap (phase I) (http://www.hapmap.org/) project to select an optimum set of SNPs from the IL-18 gene with minor allele frequencies > 0.1. Three SNPs (rs5744256, rs543810, and rs1293344) were selected that correlated with a minimum r2
0.8 with all other SNPs in the IL-18 gene. During the study, HapMap phase II data became available, and reanalysis showed that the three SNPs correlated with 15 of 21 SNPs at r2 > 0.8 and 17 SNPs at r2 > 0.5.
A previous study described two SNPs associated with IL-18 serum concentrations (15). Neither of these SNPs occurs in HapMap II. To ensure that we captured the information from these variants, we sequenced 581 bp of IL-18 containing the two SNPs IL-18/A+183G (rs5744292) and IL-18/T+533C (rs4937100) (15) in the 90 European HapMap samples. We then compared patterns of linkage disequilibrium between HapMap SNPs and the sequenced SNPs.
With the InCHIANTI DNA samples we first performed whole genome amplification, including 6% blind duplicates. We used the modified TaqMan assays at KBiosciences (Hoddesdon, U.K.) to generate genotypes from both SNPs for all samples including duplicates. For the Iowa-EPESE samples, we used conventional TaqMan probes (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA).
Statistical Analysis
Most physical functioning measures can be analyzed as continuous variables, but are really ordinal scores that are more sensitive in identifying poor function: Analyses, therefore, used both linear and logistic regression models. We used logistic regression to calculate odds ratios of being among the poor functioning groups given a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in IL-18 concentrations, using z scores of logged serum concentrations. All analyses were corrected for age and sex, as IL-18 serum concentrations are associated with these covariates (12). Details differed in the methods for the measures, so we used ranked data from each study (SPPB in 12 ranks, walk speed in 30) to combine in pooled analyses. All pooled models were adjusted for age, sex, study, plus known versus unknown family origin for Iowa-EPESE (but included only those reporting being white to a question about race).
We used a Mendelian randomization (22) approach, implemented with the instrumental variables (27) options in Stata v9 (StataCorp, College Station, TX), to obtain estimates of the associations between IL-18 serum concentrations and performance measures free from reverse causality or confounding. We compared the instrumental variable estimates of the association between IL-18 concentration and performance measures to those from ordinary linear regression using a DurbinWuHausman endogeneity test based on the C statistic. This is analogous to testing whether any observed associations between SNPs and functioning were consistent with the expected association, given (a) the association between SNPs and IL-18 serum concentrations and (b) the correlation between IL-18 concentrations and functioning (Figure 1).
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| RESULTS |
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IL-18 Serum Concentrations Are Associated With Functioning in Old Age
Using the InCHIANTI participants, we found associations between IL-18 serum concentrations and the tested physical performance measures (SPPB and 7-meter walk-time) in both linear and logistic models (Table 2). A 1 SD increase in IL-18 serum concentrations was associated with an increased chance of being in the 20% of slowest walkers (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.171.80; p =.0007) and 20% of poorest functioning participants based on the Summary Performance Scores (SPPB) (odds ratio, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.221.89; p =.00016). There was no association with ADL (p =.26) or Mini-Mental State Examination (p =.66).
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In the InCHIANTI study, the rs5744256 SNP was associated with a reduction in walking time (p =.016, Table 3). We observed a similar trend with improved functioning measured by SPPB, although this did not reach nominal significance (p =.065).
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When data from the two studies were combined (using ranked data) the associations remained, even after adjustment for age, sex, study, and known family origin, in ordinal regression models. For the SPPB, the ordinal regression coefficient for the rs5744256 SNP was ß = 0.1740 (95% CI, 0.02800.3200; p =.019). For ranked walk speeds in the two studies together, the adjusted association with rs5744256 had an ordinal regression coefficient of ß = 0.2384 (95% CI, 0.3821 to 0.0947; p =.001).
Loss to follow-up over the first 6 years of the Iowa-EPESE study was strongly associated with disability at baseline, which could result in differential attrition of gene variants detrimental to functioning. We therefore did additional analyses restricted to those participants who reported being free of functional impairments at baseline. In this incident cohort (n = 510), the regression coefficient for the SNP walking time association was in the same direction but reduced, and not nominally significant (coefficient 0.015; p =.505).
Mendelian Randomization Using rs5744256
We next estimated the strength of the association between IL-18 serum concentrations (in the InCHIANTI data only) and walking time due to the rs5744256 SNP, thus excluding reverse causation and confounding. Using instrumental variables analyses (Table 4), we found that there was a significant association between IL-18 serum concentrations and walk time due to the three rs5744256 genotypes (linear regression coefficient = 0.324; 95% CI, 0.0500.598; p =.021). This is analogous to showing that the observed association between rs5744256 and functioning is consistent with the expected effect given the association between the SNP and IL-18 concentrations and the association between IL-18 concentrations and functioning. The estimate of the regression coefficient between IL-18 concentrations and walking speed using genotypes was larger than the observed regression coefficient (0.082; 95% CI, 0.0290.135; p value for difference =.048). This difference may be due to chance or could reflect possible regression dilution bias caused by the error in the measurement of IL-18 concentrations.
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| DISCUSSION |
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The details of measurement of the SPPB and walking times differed between the InCHIANTI and Iowa-EPESE participants. To deal with this in pooled analyses we have ranked all scores within study, before combining them in ordinal regression models. This process should have removed distributional differences between the measures. The minor allele frequency for rs5744256 was higher in the Iowa-EPESE study than in the InCHIANTI study (44% vs 33%, respectively), and we therefore corrected for study in the pooled models. In the Iowa-EPESE study, all participants included in our analyses reported being "white" to a question on race, and the majority identified maternal and paternal family origins in Europe, although a limited group did not know these origins. Although the entire included sample is likely to have been of Caucasian origin, we have adjusted for this possible source of admixture. The finding of broadly consistent associations within two quite separate population studies also makes it unlikely that admixture could have biased the results.
Associations between serum markers and disease or functioning in observational studies always need to be viewed cautiously, as confounding and reverse causation are difficult to control in conventional analyses. Genetic variation is randomly inherited and is fixed at conception, and when such variation alters risk factor levels, these properties can be exploited to reduce confounding and reverse causation. The instrumental variable model presented has been used before for this purpose (14). In our study, the model clearly shows an un-confounded association of IL-18 concentrations with walk time when using IL-18 SNPs. If confirmed, this association indicates that IL-18 may play an active role in age-related physical decline.
The SNP associated with both IL-18 levels and altered functioning in old age is in intron 3 of the IL-18 gene and has no obvious function. Based on HapMapII data in Caucasians, the association could be due to nine other SNPs, including several outside of the IL-18 gene. It is likely that one or more of these SNPs alters IL-18 gene expression, and direct measurement of expression is needed. Previous in vitro experiments have shown IL-18 gene expression to be altered by two promoter polymorphisms, 607 (rs1946518) and 137 (rs187238) (28,29). The data from HapMap indicates that we have captured the 607 SNP with an r2 of 0.56 using rs1293344. This SNP was not associated with IL-18 levels (p =.11), and 607 is not in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with the SNP we found is most strongly associated with levels (correlation, r2 = 0.14 with rs5744256). The 137 SNP is not in HapMap, and we have not analyzed it further. It therefore remains possible that there is further variation in the IL-18 gene that alters serum levels of IL-18.
Conclusion
There is mounting evidence that inflammation is a core process contributing to aging. IL-18 is a potent proinflammatory cytokine and is a good candidate for contributing to inflammation-mediated aging. We have analyzed common variation in the IL-18 gene, and found that a common allele is strongly correlated with IL-18 concentration and, through this, with altered physical functioning in early old age. If replicated, these results indicate that associations between IL-18 and physical functioning are unlikely to be due to confounding or reverse causation. IL-18 may be an active factor and not a by-product in age-related decline in physical functioning.
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Address correspondence to Timothy M. Frayling, Peninsula Medical School, Magdalen Rd., Exeter, EX1 2LU, U.K. E-mail: tim.frayling{at}pms.ac.uk
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Received July 25, 2006
Accepted October 19, 2006
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