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a National Institute on Aging, Gerontology Research Center, Baltimore, Maryland
b Schools of Nursing, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
c Schools of Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
d Department of Kinesiology, University of Maryland, College Park
E. Jeffrey Metter, Gerontology Research Center, 5600 Nathan Shock Drive, Baltimore, MD 21224 E-mail: metterj{at}grc.nia.nih.gov.
Decision Editor: James R. Smith, PhD
| Abstract |
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60 years, strength was more protective than the rate of loss, which persisted when muscle mass was considered. Strength and rate of change in strength contribute to the impact of sarcopenia on mortality. Although muscle mass and physical activity are important, they do not completely account for the impact of strength and changes in strength. AGING is associated with a decline in skeletal muscle mass and muscle strength, termed sarcopenia (1), which may lead to poorer physical function in several activities of daily living. Poor physical performance has been shown to predict disability, nursing home admission, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults (2). The sequence of events illustrates a downward spiral of strength reduction, fewer activities performed, further declines in strength, diminished functional abilities, disabilities, loss of independent living, and subsequent death.
There is no single theory that adequately explains the age-associated decrements in muscle mass and strength. The aging process accounts for 3040% of the declines in strength (3), with the remaining decrease explained by a reduction in habitual activity (4)(5), nutritional deficiencies, or chronic disease. Physical inactivity is a modifiable risk factor that, when decreased, has been associated with greater muscle strength (6) and reduced mortality rates (7)(8). However, the relationship between strength and mortality is less clear than the relationship between physical activity and mortality.
The effects of muscle strength may lie in the higher functional capability associated with greater strength (9); the association with greater lean body mass relative to overall size; or the association with higher levels of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness. Several studies have shown that stronger individuals have a lower mortality (10)(11)(12), and that mortality is more closely related to strength levels than to body mass (12). At present, we are unaware of evidence that the effect of strength on mortality is independent of the level of physical activity or muscle mass, though Rantanen and colleagues (4) have shown that changing strength levels in 75- to 80-year-old subjects are related to their levels of activity. We are also unaware of studies that have examined the impact of nonterminal changes in muscle strength over time on mortality. This study addresses whether muscle strength in men (as assessed by grip strength) or rate of change in grip strength over time has an independent impact on all-cause mortality when body mass, muscle mass, and physical activity are considered over a 40-year period of follow-up.
| Methods |
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Isometric Grip Strength
Grip strength was measured as described by Kallman and colleagues (14) from 1960 to 1985. A Smedley hand dynamometer, calibrated to known weights, was adjusted for hand comfort and fit. Subjects were told to place their arms in a relaxed, stationary position. Three maximal grips were taken, and the highest was recorded for each hand. The coefficient of variation between measurements in each hand was 6%. Testretest reliability showed a correlation of .94 in 40 subjects tested on 2 subsequent days with no difference in mean strength levels.
Assessment of Physical Activity
Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) was self-reported and based on the amount of time spent performing 97 activities since the last biennial visit. The reported time spent in daily activities was based on a routine day. The intensity of each reported activity was expressed in metabolic units (METs, or metabolic equivalents of oxygen consumption) based on the coding catalog described by Ainsworth and colleagues (15) and Jetté and colleagues (16). One MET corresponds to an oxygen uptake of 3.5 ml per kilogram per minute, which approximates resting oxygen utilization. The number of minutes spent performing each activity was multiplied by the assigned MET value (MET-minutes). As a way to adjust for overestimation or underestimation of time reported performing activities, the data from all 97 activities and reported sleep were normalized to 1440 minutes, that is, 24 hours (17). Activities were further categorized according to estimated intensity: low-intensity LTPAs were those activities requiring an energy expenditure of less than 4 METs, such as playing cards or walking slowly; moderate-intensity LTPAs were those requiring between 4 and 5.9 METs, such as walking quickly or bicycling recreationally; and high-intensity LTPAs were those requiring an energy expenditure of 6 METs or greater, such as swimming laps or running. Total LTPA was computed by totaling the MET-minutes for all three intensity levels of LTPA. The questionnaire was not necessarily completed at each visit, but at 3300 of 4749 visits. When the questionnaire was completed in subsequent visits within 10 years of the missing visit, the response from the subsequent visit was used. We did not use data from earlier visits because of known age-associated declines.
Assessment of Muscle Mass
Total body muscle mass was estimated by using 24-hour creatinine excretion values, obtained by standard clinical procedures (18), which is a widely used method to estimate muscle mass (19)(20). Muscle is estimated to be 1720 kg whole wet mass/g of urinary creatinine. The variability in excretion has been reported (21) with a mean residual that was 8.5% of the mean, which is within the testretest variability range reported in the literature (20)(22). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as weight (kilograms) divided by the square of height (meters).
Assessment of Endpoints
Deaths were ascertained by intermittent telephone follow-up of inactive participants, correspondence from relatives, and annual searches of the National Death Index. Ascertainment of deaths was high, with an ability to track 98% of subjects. For deceased BLSA subjects, the cause of death was determined by the consensus of three physicians reviewing all available information, including death certificates, letters from physicians and families, medical records, and autopsy reports.
Data Analysis
Differences in baseline characteristics between survivors and decedents were assessed, for the whole sample and when stratified at age 60, by one-way analysis of variance to determine the equality of means while chi-square tests were applied to compare percentages. Descriptive data are expressed as mean ± SD unless otherwise stated. For all analyses, a two-tailed value of p < .05 was used to indicate statistical significance.
As a way to assess how initial levels of strength were associated with time to death, proportional hazard models and KaplanMeier survival curves were estimated from data collected at the first assessment. A log rank test (23) was applied to test for equality of survival among various strata in the KaplanMeier analysis. Two strata were constructed on the basis of age greater than or equal to 60 years, or less than 60 years, and initial strength was categorized into four groups on the basis of quartiles of grip strength derived from the entire cohort of men. S-PLUS 2000 (Insightful, Seattle, WA) was used to perform all analyses.
Proportional hazard analysis was used to determine the longitudinal contribution of strength and rate of change in grip strength on mortality, using the survival functions developed by Therneau (24). Time-dependent covariates in the longitudinal analyses used the AndersonGill formulation as a counting process. For each subject, time was divided into intervals between evaluations, and the covariates were based on the evaluation at the start of the interval. Rate of change in muscle strength at a given evaluation was calculated as the difference in strength from the previous visit divided by the time between visits. Thus, both grip strength and rate of strength change could increase or decrease over time. Longitudinal models included, for each visit, rate of changes in grip strength, grip strength itself, age, height, and BMI, with physical activity and creatinine excretion added sequentially. Analysis included all subjects with stratification at age 60, and separate analyses for men who were <60 years of age and for those who were
60 years. Age cut points were chosen (a) to ensure a sufficient number of events in the two age groups, (b) to account for a Martingale residual analysis which found excess mortality in older subjects starting near age 60 years, and (c) to depict the age-associated loss in grip strength observed in men over age 60 (14).
| Results |
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60 years at baseline, the main differences between those still alive and those who were dead were in the length of follow-up, level of physical activity, and grip strength. Strength decreased with increasing age, as has been previously reported (14). In addition, the mean strength decline between visits was 0.8 ± 6.5 kg per year (p < .0001), with decedents showing a significantly greater decline in strength between visits, at 1.5 ± 6.2 kg per year, than the 0.22 ± 6.6 kg per year decline for those who survived (p = .004, adjusted for age differences). The differences in rates of decline persisted when only visits that were more than 5.0 years before death were considered (p = .004).
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60 years, with a relative risk (RR) = .985, and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of .980.991, per kilogram increase in grip strength, which implies that a man at the 25th percentile of grip strength (83 kg for both hands) would have a RR of 1.22 (a 22% increased risk of death) compared with a man at the median for grip strength (96 kg for both hands). When initial grip strength was examined as four groups (divided at quartiles 83, 96, and 108 kg) with age 60 years as strata, there was a progressive reduction in risk as compared with the lowest quartile with a second quartile RR of .715 (.576.888), a third quartile of .656 (.513.839), and a highest quartile of .509 (.379.684). A KaplanMeier plot stratified at age 60 years for grip strength quartiles is shown in Fig. 1, with a significant (p < .0001) difference between the quartiles. When the two age strata were examined separately, the impact of strength was observed in the older age group (p = .0002), but not the younger group (p = .14). The findings based on a baseline analysis persisted when only subjects who survived for at least 5 years after the assessment were included.
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60 years of age at first evaluation (p = .007, RR = .990, CI = .982.997).
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60 years at their first evaluation, grip strength had a RR of .99 (p = .04, CI = .981.00) per kilogram of strength, while change in strength was not significant. The effect of change in grip strength persisted for subjects who survived more than 5 years following their last evaluation.
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60 years (Table 4 , Model 3), whereas loss of strength over time remained a significant risk in the younger men (Table 5 , Model 3). High-intensity LTPA no longer had an independent protective effect on survival. | Discussion |
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60 years, while loss of strength over time continued to be important in younger men. In younger men, strength levels tend to be high and are not likely to contribute to functional disabilities and mortality. In previous work, we have shown that younger men tend to have a large degree of functional reserve that allows for an excess in strength, well above thresholds required for functional requirements (9). Thus, the level of strength tends to be less important. Changes in strength over time appear to have a different impact, because men who gain strength over time have a lower risk than men who lose strength. The protective effect appears to be independent of muscle mass and may have to do with levels of fitness, while being independent of physical activity. Physical activity and cardiovascular fitness are only modestly correlated (17), so both may have an independent impact on strength, disability, and mortality.
In older men, functional performance becomes more directly dependent on strength, as these men show age-associated changes in strength and muscle mass, that is, sarcopenia. Sarcopenia is associated with increasing frailty in the elderly population (25), with functional disability, and with increased risk for age-associated diseases. In men
60 years, we found that lower strength is a risk for mortality that persists after the amount of lean body mass, which primarily represents muscle, is accounted for. In general, the more muscle mass, the stronger the individual. However, this association is modulated by age, as the quality (the force generated per unit of muscle) declines with age (26). The persistence of strength as an independent risk after muscle mass is accounted for suggests that the quality of the muscle as well as the muscle size is likely important in determining risk. Sarcopenia likely contributes to mortality through both a reduction in muscle size and the amount of force the muscle can generate. This combination is associated with functional disability, frailty, and decreased coping ability (25)(27).
Muscle strength represents a potential surrogate for other aspects of the changing body physiology that occur with increasing age. Strength is associated with loss of muscle mass and motor units, altered hormonal, insulin, and growth factor secretion, and other changes. Declining hormonal and growth factor secretion is associated with decreasing muscle protein metabolism (28), altering muscle function and mass. However, muscle protein metabolism does not necessarily change with age (29). Replacement of at least some of these hormones is associated with increasing levels of muscle mass and strength (30)(31). Whether such therapeutic approaches have an impact on mortality is currently an open question.
The importance of strength on mortality has not been completely studied. Rantanen and colleagues (12) found, in middle-aged men, that grip strength is an independent risk factor when stratifying based on body weight with a RR of 1.24 (1.111.39) in the lowest tertile and 1.14 (1.031.26) in the middle tertile, with the strongest tertile as the reference with adjustments for age, occupation, smoking, physical activity, and body size. Fujita and colleagues (10) found, in a Japanese health promotion program, that strength independently predicts mortality with a RR of 1.92 (1.163.16) in low versus high strength levels for men, but not in women. The RRs found in both studies are similar to our findings for grip strength. Neither of these studies examined the effect of strength over time or rate of changes in strength. In fact, the rate of changes in strength appears to have a greater effect than the actual level, at least in men <60 years of age.
The effect of rate of change in strength raises the question of whether the observations are based on terminal changes that occur during the latter years of life. Against this argument is that the time from the last grip strength measurement to death was on average over 10 years, and two measurements were required to be included in the longitudinal analyses involving rate of change in grip strength. In addition, participation in the study required a visit to the Gerontology Research Center, and 23 days of research studies. Subjects tended to be in excellent to good self-reported health. Furthermore, the consideration of only those subjects who survived at least 5 years following an evaluation did not affect the findings. A terminal effect seems unlikely to explain the observations in this study.
Increasing mortality with decreasing strength and muscle mass may be related to changing levels of physical fitness with age. Work by Fleg and Lakatta (32) has shown that BLSA subjects demonstrate the typical age-related loss of cardiovascular fitness measured by VO2 max as observed in other studies. Talbot and colleagues (17) have shown a direct, but relatively weak, association between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness in the BLSA. The declining level of high-intensity activity with age was found to be an independent predictor of mortality in this study after strength changes were accounted for. These observations suggest that the contributions of strength and fitness to mortality are somewhat different, but both are directly related to what happens to muscle mass.
A major limitation of this study is that we had little data for women. We have followed women for the past 20 years, but we had only 67 years of hand grip measurements on approximately 200 women, with very few deaths. Initial exploration of the data found little influence of muscle strength in women, but the analysis did not have sufficient power to justify elaboration. Another consideration is the degree to which grip strength is a reasonable choice for body strength. Grip strength was chosen because it has been reported in other studies that have examined the relationships between muscle strength and disability (33) and mortality (12).
Muscle strength and rate of change in muscle strength have an impact on all-cause mortality. Risk of mortality was directly related to strength in older men (
60 years), whereas rate of change in strength was more important in men <60 years of age. Having a low level of muscle mass, which has been referred to as sarcopenia, is an important contributor to mortality but did not totally account for the effect of strength.
| Acknowledgments |
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We thank the participants and staff of the BLSA who have made this study possible.
Received May 7, 2002
Accepted August 2, 2002
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