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The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 57:B359-B365 (2002)
© 2002 The Gerontological Society of America

Skeletal Muscle Strength as a Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in Healthy Men

E. Jeffrey Mettera, Laura A. Talbotb, Matthew Schragera,d and Robin Conwitc

a National Institute on Aging, Gerontology Research Center, Baltimore, Maryland
b Schools of Nursing, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
c Schools of Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
d Department of Kinesiology, University of Maryland, College Park

E. Jeffrey Metter, Gerontology Research Center, 5600 Nathan Shock Drive, Baltimore, MD 21224 E-mail: metterj{at}grc.nia.nih.gov.

Decision Editor: James R. Smith, PhD


    Abstract
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Low muscle strength is associated with mortality, presumably as a result of low muscle mass (sarcopenia) and physical inactivity. Grip strength was longitudinally collected in 1071 men over a 25-year period. Muscle mass was estimated by using 24-hour creatinine excretion and physical activity values, obtained by questionnaire. Survival analysis examined the impact of grip strength and rate of change in strength on all-cause mortality over 40 years. Lower and declining strength are associated with increased mortality, independent of physical activity and muscle mass. In men <60 years, rate of loss of strength was more important than the actual levels. In men >=60 years, strength was more protective than the rate of loss, which persisted when muscle mass was considered. Strength and rate of change in strength contribute to the impact of sarcopenia on mortality. Although muscle mass and physical activity are important, they do not completely account for the impact of strength and changes in strength.

AGING is associated with a decline in skeletal muscle mass and muscle strength, termed sarcopenia (1), which may lead to poorer physical function in several activities of daily living. Poor physical performance has been shown to predict disability, nursing home admission, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults (2). The sequence of events illustrates a downward spiral of strength reduction, fewer activities performed, further declines in strength, diminished functional abilities, disabilities, loss of independent living, and subsequent death.

There is no single theory that adequately explains the age-associated decrements in muscle mass and strength. The aging process accounts for 30–40% of the declines in strength (3), with the remaining decrease explained by a reduction in habitual activity (4)(5), nutritional deficiencies, or chronic disease. Physical inactivity is a modifiable risk factor that, when decreased, has been associated with greater muscle strength (6) and reduced mortality rates (7)(8). However, the relationship between strength and mortality is less clear than the relationship between physical activity and mortality.

The effects of muscle strength may lie in the higher functional capability associated with greater strength (9); the association with greater lean body mass relative to overall size; or the association with higher levels of physical activity and cardiovascular fitness. Several studies have shown that stronger individuals have a lower mortality (10)(11)(12), and that mortality is more closely related to strength levels than to body mass (12). At present, we are unaware of evidence that the effect of strength on mortality is independent of the level of physical activity or muscle mass, though Rantanen and colleagues (4) have shown that changing strength levels in 75- to 80-year-old subjects are related to their levels of activity. We are also unaware of studies that have examined the impact of nonterminal changes in muscle strength over time on mortality. This study addresses whether muscle strength in men (as assessed by grip strength) or rate of change in grip strength over time has an independent impact on all-cause mortality when body mass, muscle mass, and physical activity are considered over a 40-year period of follow-up.


    Methods
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Study Population
The subjects are male participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA), a prospective study of the aging process that started in 1958 (13). Women entered the study starting in 1978, and too few women have had grip strength measurements and deaths for us to evaluate the effect of strength on mortality. BLSA participants are community-residing volunteers who tend to be well educated, with above-average income and access to medical care. These subjects visit the Gerontology Research Center at regular intervals for 2 days of medical, physiological, and psychological testing. Each participant has a health evaluation by a health provider (physician, nurse practitioner, or physician assistant).

Isometric Grip Strength
Grip strength was measured as described by Kallman and colleagues (14) from 1960 to 1985. A Smedley hand dynamometer, calibrated to known weights, was adjusted for hand comfort and fit. Subjects were told to place their arms in a relaxed, stationary position. Three maximal grips were taken, and the highest was recorded for each hand. The coefficient of variation between measurements in each hand was 6%. Test–retest reliability showed a correlation of .94 in 40 subjects tested on 2 subsequent days with no difference in mean strength levels.

Assessment of Physical Activity
Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) was self-reported and based on the amount of time spent performing 97 activities since the last biennial visit. The reported time spent in daily activities was based on a routine day. The intensity of each reported activity was expressed in metabolic units (METs, or metabolic equivalents of oxygen consumption) based on the coding catalog described by Ainsworth and colleagues (15) and Jetté and colleagues (16). One MET corresponds to an oxygen uptake of 3.5 ml per kilogram per minute, which approximates resting oxygen utilization. The number of minutes spent performing each activity was multiplied by the assigned MET value (MET-minutes). As a way to adjust for overestimation or underestimation of time reported performing activities, the data from all 97 activities and reported sleep were normalized to 1440 minutes, that is, 24 hours (17). Activities were further categorized according to estimated intensity: low-intensity LTPAs were those activities requiring an energy expenditure of less than 4 METs, such as playing cards or walking slowly; moderate-intensity LTPAs were those requiring between 4 and 5.9 METs, such as walking quickly or bicycling recreationally; and high-intensity LTPAs were those requiring an energy expenditure of 6 METs or greater, such as swimming laps or running. Total LTPA was computed by totaling the MET-minutes for all three intensity levels of LTPA. The questionnaire was not necessarily completed at each visit, but at 3300 of 4749 visits. When the questionnaire was completed in subsequent visits within 10 years of the missing visit, the response from the subsequent visit was used. We did not use data from earlier visits because of known age-associated declines.

Assessment of Muscle Mass
Total body muscle mass was estimated by using 24-hour creatinine excretion values, obtained by standard clinical procedures (18), which is a widely used method to estimate muscle mass (19)(20). Muscle is estimated to be 17–20 kg whole wet mass/g of urinary creatinine. The variability in excretion has been reported (21) with a mean residual that was 8.5% of the mean, which is within the test–retest variability range reported in the literature (20)(22). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as weight (kilograms) divided by the square of height (meters).

Assessment of Endpoints
Deaths were ascertained by intermittent telephone follow-up of inactive participants, correspondence from relatives, and annual searches of the National Death Index. Ascertainment of deaths was high, with an ability to track 98% of subjects. For deceased BLSA subjects, the cause of death was determined by the consensus of three physicians reviewing all available information, including death certificates, letters from physicians and families, medical records, and autopsy reports.

Data Analysis
Differences in baseline characteristics between survivors and decedents were assessed, for the whole sample and when stratified at age 60, by one-way analysis of variance to determine the equality of means while chi-square tests were applied to compare percentages. Descriptive data are expressed as mean ± SD unless otherwise stated. For all analyses, a two-tailed value of p < .05 was used to indicate statistical significance.

As a way to assess how initial levels of strength were associated with time to death, proportional hazard models and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were estimated from data collected at the first assessment. A log rank test (23) was applied to test for equality of survival among various strata in the Kaplan–Meier analysis. Two strata were constructed on the basis of age greater than or equal to 60 years, or less than 60 years, and initial strength was categorized into four groups on the basis of quartiles of grip strength derived from the entire cohort of men. S-PLUS 2000 (Insightful, Seattle, WA) was used to perform all analyses.

Proportional hazard analysis was used to determine the longitudinal contribution of strength and rate of change in grip strength on mortality, using the survival functions developed by Therneau (24). Time-dependent covariates in the longitudinal analyses used the Anderson–Gill formulation as a counting process. For each subject, time was divided into intervals between evaluations, and the covariates were based on the evaluation at the start of the interval. Rate of change in muscle strength at a given evaluation was calculated as the difference in strength from the previous visit divided by the time between visits. Thus, both grip strength and rate of strength change could increase or decrease over time. Longitudinal models included, for each visit, rate of changes in grip strength, grip strength itself, age, height, and BMI, with physical activity and creatinine excretion added sequentially. Analysis included all subjects with stratification at age 60, and separate analyses for men who were <60 years of age and for those who were >=60 years. Age cut points were chosen (a) to ensure a sufficient number of events in the two age groups, (b) to account for a Martingale residual analysis which found excess mortality in older subjects starting near age 60 years, and (c) to depict the age-associated loss in grip strength observed in men over age 60 (14).


    Results
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Subjects consisted of 1071 men who were followed for a total of 24,357 years, with 533 deaths. Deaths were grouped into categories as presented in Table 1 . Cardiovascular diseases and cancer accounted for over 60% of the deaths. The average age at death was 79.5 ± 11.5 years; the average age in September 1999 for survivors was 66.3 ± 13.8 years. The mean time from the last evaluation to death was 10.3 ± 7.0 years (range 0.1–32 years), and that from initial evaluation to death was 17.5 ± 9.4 years (range 0.1–38 years). Subject characterization at baseline for the entire sample and by age group is shown in Table 2 . For men <60 years, survivors were younger, had longer follow-up, lower BMI, greater height, and greater muscle mass; they did more physical activity but did not differ in grip strength. For those men >=60 years at baseline, the main differences between those still alive and those who were dead were in the length of follow-up, level of physical activity, and grip strength. Strength decreased with increasing age, as has been previously reported (14). In addition, the mean strength decline between visits was 0.8 ± 6.5 kg per year (p < .0001), with decedents showing a significantly greater decline in strength between visits, at 1.5 ± 6.2 kg per year, than the 0.22 ± 6.6 kg per year decline for those who survived (p = .004, adjusted for age differences). The differences in rates of decline persisted when only visits that were more than 5.0 years before death were considered (p = .004).


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Table 1. Cause of Death

 

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Table 2. Differences in Baseline Characteristics Between Survivors and Decedents

 
Initial muscle strength was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality after stratification for age >=60 years, with a relative risk (RR) = .985, and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of .980–.991, per kilogram increase in grip strength, which implies that a man at the 25th percentile of grip strength (83 kg for both hands) would have a RR of 1.22 (a 22% increased risk of death) compared with a man at the median for grip strength (96 kg for both hands). When initial grip strength was examined as four groups (divided at quartiles 83, 96, and 108 kg) with age 60 years as strata, there was a progressive reduction in risk as compared with the lowest quartile with a second quartile RR of .715 (.576–.888), a third quartile of .656 (.513–.839), and a highest quartile of .509 (.379–.684). A Kaplan–Meier plot stratified at age 60 years for grip strength quartiles is shown in Fig. 1, with a significant (p < .0001) difference between the quartiles. When the two age strata were examined separately, the impact of strength was observed in the older age group (p = .0002), but not the younger group (p = .14). The findings based on a baseline analysis persisted when only subjects who survived for at least 5 years after the assessment were included.



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Figure 1. Kaplan–Meier plot of survival in men by quartile strength at their initial assessment age stratified at 60 years. The four groups are based on quartiles (lowest quartile group is <=83 kg sum of grip in both hands, second quartile group is 83.1–96 kg, third quartile group is 96.1–108 kg, and fourth quartile group is >108 kg). The quartile groups differed (p = .0002) in men 60 years and older, but were not significantly different in younger men (p = .14). The four groups were divided at the quartiles (83, 96, and 108 kg)

 
Longitudinal changes in grip (14) and arm strength (6) have been reported in the BLSA. Fig. 2 presents examples of the time course of change in grip measurements from subjects who were evaluated on at least 12 occasions. When strength was examined longitudinally over the 25 years, a significant relationship (p < .0001) was found, with mortality demonstrating a RR of .989 (CI .984–.994) per kilogram of strength after age was adjusted for. The risk associated with lower strength levels in the longitudinal analysis was very similar to what was found in the baseline analysis (see previous paragraph). The relationship persisted for men who were <60 years at their first evaluation (p = .01, RR = .991, CI = .984–.998) and for men >=60 years of age at first evaluation (p = .007, RR = .990, CI = .982–.997).



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Figure 2. Longitudinal plots by age of total right- and left-hand grip strength for the 11 men who had 12 or more assessments. Each plot represents the data from an individual man over many years. Each subject is presented as a separate line with symbols denoting measurement times. The same symbol and line element are used for more than one subject.

 
The rate of change in muscle strength between assessments declined with increasing age by -.045 kg per year (p < .0001; Fig. 3). When men showing a decline in strength between visits were compared with those showing no change or an increase in strength, strength loss was associated with an increased risk of mortality (RR = 1.34, CI = 1.12–1.62); age, height, BMI, and grip strength were adjusted for at each visit (Table 3 , Model 1). The risk associated with loss of strength was particularly important for men who were <60 years of age at their first evaluation (RR = 1.75, CI = 1.31–2.74; Table 5 , Model 1). In the men >=60 years at their first evaluation, grip strength had a RR of .99 (p = .04, CI = .98–1.00) per kilogram of strength, while change in strength was not significant. The effect of change in grip strength persisted for subjects who survived more than 5 years following their last evaluation.



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Figure 3. Rate of change in total right- and left-hand grip strength between adjacent evaluations by age for all men. As an example, a point would represent the slope of the line between each pair of visits for a subject shown in Fig. 2. The rate of change declines with increasing age by .045 kg/y (p < .0001).

 

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Table 3. All Subjects: Change in Muscle Strength Relationship to Mortality by Proportional Hazard Analysis

 

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Table 5. Men <60 Years: Change in Muscle Strength Relationship to Mortality by Proportional Hazard Analysis

 
Strength may reflect muscle mass, level of physical activity, or both. An unresolved question is whether strength or change in strength contributes to mortality independent of physical activity and muscle mass. The effect of strength could be explained by either of these factors. Models in Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 explore this question by sequentially adding physical activity (Model 2) and muscle mass (Model 3) to the survival model for all men (Table 3 ), and then for men initially older (Table 4 ) or younger (Table 5 ) than 60 years of age. The addition of physical activity (Table 3 , Model 2) found a protective effect against mortality for higher grip strength and for no loss of strength over time, and high-intensity LTPA had an independent contribution. As with the models that did not consider physical activity, loss of strength was a significant risk for young but not older men, whereas the actual grip strength was important in older men. The impact of high-intensity LTPA was primarily seen in younger men (Table 5 , Model 2).


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Table 4. Men >=60 Years: Change in Muscle Strength Relationship to Mortality by Proportional Hazard Analysis

 
When muscle mass (24-hour excretion of creatinine) was entered into the models (Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 , Model 3), change in grip strength remained significant (p = .003; Table 3 , Model 3). An independent effect of grip strength on mortality persisted in men >=60 years (Table 4 , Model 3), whereas loss of strength over time remained a significant risk in the younger men (Table 5 , Model 3). High-intensity LTPA no longer had an independent protective effect on survival.


    Discussion
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 
Lower muscle strength and muscle mass and greater declines in strength over time are associated with increased risk of mortality, independent of physical activity and body mass. In older men, the protective effect of muscle strength was greater than the effect of rate of change in muscle, whereas in younger men, the rate of change in strength was far more important than the actual levels. The effect of strength on mortality can be accounted for in part by the level of muscle mass. However, strength continued to have an independent contribution to all-cause mortality in men >=60 years, while loss of strength over time continued to be important in younger men.

In younger men, strength levels tend to be high and are not likely to contribute to functional disabilities and mortality. In previous work, we have shown that younger men tend to have a large degree of functional reserve that allows for an excess in strength, well above thresholds required for functional requirements (9). Thus, the level of strength tends to be less important. Changes in strength over time appear to have a different impact, because men who gain strength over time have a lower risk than men who lose strength. The protective effect appears to be independent of muscle mass and may have to do with levels of fitness, while being independent of physical activity. Physical activity and cardiovascular fitness are only modestly correlated (17), so both may have an independent impact on strength, disability, and mortality.

In older men, functional performance becomes more directly dependent on strength, as these men show age-associated changes in strength and muscle mass, that is, sarcopenia. Sarcopenia is associated with increasing frailty in the elderly population (25), with functional disability, and with increased risk for age-associated diseases. In men >=60 years, we found that lower strength is a risk for mortality that persists after the amount of lean body mass, which primarily represents muscle, is accounted for. In general, the more muscle mass, the stronger the individual. However, this association is modulated by age, as the quality (the force generated per unit of muscle) declines with age (26). The persistence of strength as an independent risk after muscle mass is accounted for suggests that the quality of the muscle as well as the muscle size is likely important in determining risk. Sarcopenia likely contributes to mortality through both a reduction in muscle size and the amount of force the muscle can generate. This combination is associated with functional disability, frailty, and decreased coping ability (25)(27).

Muscle strength represents a potential surrogate for other aspects of the changing body physiology that occur with increasing age. Strength is associated with loss of muscle mass and motor units, altered hormonal, insulin, and growth factor secretion, and other changes. Declining hormonal and growth factor secretion is associated with decreasing muscle protein metabolism (28), altering muscle function and mass. However, muscle protein metabolism does not necessarily change with age (29). Replacement of at least some of these hormones is associated with increasing levels of muscle mass and strength (30)(31). Whether such therapeutic approaches have an impact on mortality is currently an open question.

The importance of strength on mortality has not been completely studied. Rantanen and colleagues (12) found, in middle-aged men, that grip strength is an independent risk factor when stratifying based on body weight with a RR of 1.24 (1.11–1.39) in the lowest tertile and 1.14 (1.03–1.26) in the middle tertile, with the strongest tertile as the reference with adjustments for age, occupation, smoking, physical activity, and body size. Fujita and colleagues (10) found, in a Japanese health promotion program, that strength independently predicts mortality with a RR of 1.92 (1.16–3.16) in low versus high strength levels for men, but not in women. The RRs found in both studies are similar to our findings for grip strength. Neither of these studies examined the effect of strength over time or rate of changes in strength. In fact, the rate of changes in strength appears to have a greater effect than the actual level, at least in men <60 years of age.

The effect of rate of change in strength raises the question of whether the observations are based on terminal changes that occur during the latter years of life. Against this argument is that the time from the last grip strength measurement to death was on average over 10 years, and two measurements were required to be included in the longitudinal analyses involving rate of change in grip strength. In addition, participation in the study required a visit to the Gerontology Research Center, and 2–3 days of research studies. Subjects tended to be in excellent to good self-reported health. Furthermore, the consideration of only those subjects who survived at least 5 years following an evaluation did not affect the findings. A terminal effect seems unlikely to explain the observations in this study.

Increasing mortality with decreasing strength and muscle mass may be related to changing levels of physical fitness with age. Work by Fleg and Lakatta (32) has shown that BLSA subjects demonstrate the typical age-related loss of cardiovascular fitness measured by V•O2 max as observed in other studies. Talbot and colleagues (17) have shown a direct, but relatively weak, association between physical activity and cardiovascular fitness in the BLSA. The declining level of high-intensity activity with age was found to be an independent predictor of mortality in this study after strength changes were accounted for. These observations suggest that the contributions of strength and fitness to mortality are somewhat different, but both are directly related to what happens to muscle mass.

A major limitation of this study is that we had little data for women. We have followed women for the past 20 years, but we had only 6–7 years of hand grip measurements on approximately 200 women, with very few deaths. Initial exploration of the data found little influence of muscle strength in women, but the analysis did not have sufficient power to justify elaboration. Another consideration is the degree to which grip strength is a reasonable choice for body strength. Grip strength was chosen because it has been reported in other studies that have examined the relationships between muscle strength and disability (33) and mortality (12).

Muscle strength and rate of change in muscle strength have an impact on all-cause mortality. Risk of mortality was directly related to strength in older men (>=60 years), whereas rate of change in strength was more important in men <60 years of age. Having a low level of muscle mass, which has been referred to as sarcopenia, is an important contributor to mortality but did not totally account for the effect of strength.


    Acknowledgments
 
The BLSA is part of the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute on Aging, which supported this work.

We thank the participants and staff of the BLSA who have made this study possible.

Received May 7, 2002

Accepted August 2, 2002


    References
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 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 References
 

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