This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) Services Download to citation manager PubMed PubMed Citation

Cumulative Deficits and Physiological Indices as Predictors of Mortality and Long Life

Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University Population Research Institute, and Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.

Address correspondence to Alexander Kulminski, PhD, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University, Trent Hall, Room 002, Box 90408, Durham, NC, 27708. E-mail: alexander.kulminski{at}duke.edu

We evaluated the predictive potential for long-term (24-year) survival and longevity (85+ years) of an index of cumulative deficits (DI) and six physiological indices (pulse pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, blood glucose, and hematocrit) measured in mid- to late life (44–88 years) for participants of the 9th and 14th Framingham Heart Study examinations. For all ages combined, the DI, pulse pressure, and blood glucose are the strongest determinants of both long-term survival and longevity, contributing cumulatively to their explanation. Diastolic blood pressure and hematocrit are less significant determinants of both of these outcomes. The pulse rate is more relevant to survival, whereas serum cholesterol is more relevant to longevity. Only the DI is a significant predictor of longevity and mortality for each 5-year age group ranging from 45 to 85 years. The DI appears to be a more important determinant of long-term risks of death and longevity than are the physiological indices.

Key Words: Mortality • Longevity • Physiological risk factors • Framingham Heart Study