Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, Vol 54, Issue 6 B247-B254, Copyright © 1999 by The Gerontological Society of America
Dynamic paradigms for human mortality and aging
KG Manton
Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708-0408, USA. kgm@cds.duke.edu
Hazard models are often applied to mortality data of humans and other
species so that the parameter estimates made for those models can be used
to make inferences about the biology, and comparative biology, of aging
processes. Enough longitudinal data on physiological and functional changes
in humans now exist to know that the age trajectory of the physiological
state of individuals is multidimensional, stochastic, and plastic. Thus, to
fully assess the biological significance of existing longitudinal data on
human aging and mortality processes, multivariate stochastic process models
must be developed that are biologically detailed and valid. This requires
assessing genetic mechanisms controlling human longevity and rates of
aging, developing models of how those traits may have evolved, and
developing statistical methods for identifying gene environment
interactions. This article examines the theoretical basis for such models
and the biological rationale of their parametric structure. Several
examples are given.
